F2C — An Innovative Approach to Use Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM) for the Valuation of High-Technology Ventures

Peter Heydebreck1, Magnus Klofsten2 and Lars Krüger3

1Inno AG, Karlsstrasse, Karlsruhe

2 Department of Management and Industrial Development, University of Linköping,  Linköping, Sweden

3 Engage — Key Technology Ventures AG, Rostock / Germany

 

Copyright © 2011 Peter Heydebreck, Magnus Klofsten and Lars Krüger. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License unported 3.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided that original work is properly cited.

Abstract

We propose a novel method – F2C – that can process the only information available in the early stages of a young high-technology venture: linguistic expert knowledge. This knowledge is the basis for the determination of an appropriate discount rate for the valuation of high-technology ventures in early stages of venture capital investments. A specific tool named Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) is used therein to capture and depict the expert knowledge. Consequently, the FCM is transformed into a system of Fuzzy Inference Systems. These systems allow eventually obtaining a crisp value for the crucial parameter, the discount rate r . First practical applications were carried out valuing a biotechnology venture. The obtained results are promising, though the need for further research efforts became obvious.

Keywords: Fuzzy Cognitive Map, Venture Valuation, Fuzzy Systems
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